I Like These Tariffs

Donald Trump re-imagined as the Hindenburg Disaster.

Everybody seems to be in a tizzy about the new global tariffs announced by His Orangeness earlier today.

Not Thee Optimist.

Truth be told, Thee Optimist is a fan of the Donald's tariffs.

Yes, yes, the tariffs seem to reflect a poor understanding of what will happen as a result.  Trump seems to believe that punitive tariffs will re-start American manufacturing.  

It's admittedly a nice thought, but it can't and won't happen.  The capital outlays to rebuild American manufacturing would be enormous.  No one is going to take that on, not least because the next president will simply reverse the tariffs, and any money invested will be lost.  

In fact, Trump keeps reversing the tariffs himself.  Anyway, he'll likely be dead by Christmas.  No company anywhere trusts that the tariffs will be a permanent fixture of the landscape.  

Naturally, I'm not expecting anyone who works for, or advises Donald Trump, to understand things.

Trump Administration figures are more proof, in case we needed any, of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.  They are so incompetent, they are not capable of grasping how incompetent they actually are.

The tariffs, which are apparently meant to kick-start the US economy, will probably tank it instead, and may well precipitate a worldwide recession.

It's less likely, but they might even cause the fragile, top-heavy US economy to collapse.  

Indeed, if this isn't another one of Trump's various hoaxes, there's going to be quite a bit of pain, plenty for everyone.

But there's also plenty of good to see here, if you have the right pair of eyes.

So why, pray tell, do I like the tariffs?

Donald Trump, man on fire.

I don't like the US military

During the Ukraine War, a troubling fact came to light.  

To be clear, I'm not troubled by it, but many people are, and I can see why they would be.

It came to light when the smart cookies who run this place realized that the Ukraine War was an old-school, World War One - style war of attrition, a real land war, the kind of war which the United States hasn't fought in a long while.

The US, wanting to help its ally Ukraine fight off the evil Russians, decided to ramp up arms manufacturing.  

The US needed to do this because wars of attrition, by definition, eat up a lot of stuff, including people and places, but more importantly, ammunition.  

It turned out that when the US tried to accelerate production, they couldn't do it.  At least, not in time to save the Ukrainians.

The US manufacturing base is sclerotic, even moribund.  That is certainly bad enough.  If that was merely the worst thing, it would be more badness than we need.

However, bringing the whole thing to a Dr. Strangelove level of comedy, it also turns out that the Chinese are deeply embedded in the manufacturing and procurement of weapons and supplies for the US military. 

Yes, the same Chinese the Pentagon supposedly would like to have a war with.

There are more than 700 Chinese companies supplying semiconductors and related high-tech devices to the US military.  And that's just the tip of the ice cube.  

Aircraft carriers, aircraft, missiles, missile defense, and tanks, all rely on parts sourced from China.  

Moreover, inspections have found MILLIONS of counterfeit Chinese parts in US military equipment ostensibly not sourced from China at all.  

What is good about this?  I'll tell you.

Trump just slapped the Chinese with tariffs of 54%.  The Chinese aren't pleased, and will likely do two things in response.

1) Hit the US with tariffs.

2) Slow down production and delivery of needed supplies.

In Thee Optimist's mind, there is nothing wrong with slowing down the US military, and making it harder for them to acquire supplies.  

Despite their recent humiliating loss in Afghanistan, it is an institution that can always use another reality check.

 

An abandoned home in Detroit.  Many cities in America are already in a sort of perma-recession.

I Like Recessions

Thee Optimist is what you might call a "deep ecologist."

Deep Ecology is the idea that all living beings on this planet have rights and inherent value, regardless of whether or not they are useful to humans.  

This mindset is in opposition to the prevailing mindset, which could be called "human exceptionalism."

Human exceptionalism is the idea that humans are the most important entities on the planet, and are in fact apart from, and above, all other living beings.  Other living beings are only here to be used by us, for whatever purpose we deem correct.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see how much damage human exceptionalism has wrought on planet Earth, the only planet we will ever call home.  We have wrecked the place in the name of our own superiority.

In times of prosperity, human exceptionalism tends to run amok, even more than normal.  Every piece of open land has to have a condominium development or a mall on it.  

Materialistic consumers need to buy everything they can think of.  Airplanes have to go everywhere, all the time.  Every living animal must be factory-farmed or hunted to extinction, and eaten.

In times of recession, condominiums and malls go broke and are abandoned.  People stop flying.  People stop driving.  People stop buying.  Wildlife returns to places that were paved over.  The air clears.  These are very good things.

Maybe people even begin to realize there's more to life than mindless materialism.

To say Thee Optimist "likes" recessions, is akin to saying that it's warm inside the flaming heart of the sun.

As noted earlier, the Trump Tariffs are likely to cause a much-needed recession, possibly a really BIG ONE.

Delhi, India.  The image on the left is a normal day of toxic haze.  The image on the right is during the steep recession caused by the Covid lockdown in 2020.  Aaaaahhh, smell that?  It's called fresh air.

Words of Wisdom

“The most fortunate of us all in our journey through life frequently meet with calamities and misfortunes which greatly afflict us.  To fortify our minds against the attacks of these calamities and misfortunes should be one of the principal studies and endeavors of our lives.” 

- Thomas Jefferson